Contest: Predict the summer box office champ

This summer features a surprisingly large number of well-known franchise films competing for your entertainment dollar, despite the great recession. If I were a major studio, I might hold off on some of these, but I suppose they’re gambling that summer movie escapism is recession-proof.

The upcoming potential blockbuster releases are listed below. For each week of summer, I picked the most buzz-worthy film.

  1. X-Men Origins: Wolverine — May 1
  2. Star Trek (dir J.J. Abrams) — May 8
  3. Angels & Demons (The Da Vinci Code 2) — May 15
  4. Terminator: Salvation — May 22
  5. Up (Pixar) — May 29
  6. Land of the Lost (Will Ferrell) — June 5
  7. The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3 (Denzel Washington) — June 12
  8. Year One (Jack Black, dir Harold Ramis) — June 19
  9. Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen — June 26
  10. Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs — July 3
  11. Brüno (Sacha Baron Cohen) — July 10
  12. Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince — July 17
  13. G-Force (Disney guinea pig flick) — July 24
  14. Funny People (Seth Rogen, dir Judd Apatow) — July 31
  15. G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra — August 7
  16. Final Destination 4: Death Trip 3D — August 14
  17. Inglorious Basterds (dir Quentin Tarantino) — August 21
  18. H2: Halloween 2 (dir Rob Zombie) — August 28

(Certainly I’m leaving off a lot of films that are coming out this summer. And some, such as the new Woody Allen film Whatever Works, June 19, will probably do better than some of the 18 I’ve listed. But to keep things simple, let’s just consider these 18.)

Now, your tasks:

  1. Predict which of the above 18 films will have the biggest box office opening weekend in the U.S. as determined by The Numbers.
  2. Predict which of the above 18 films will have the biggest worldwide box office take as of Labor Day, as determined by The Numbers.
  3. Predict which of the above 18 films will have the highest Rotten Tomatoes score.

Bonus question: In a fight between the protagonists of the above 18 films, who would win?

To enter, just leave a comment here or in FriendFeed.

Update 4/25: Prize is two movie ticket passes to the AMC chain. Deadline to enter is April 30th.

25 Comments

41 Responses to “Contest: Predict the summer box office champ”

  1. Rich Says:

    1. X-Men Origins: Wolverine
    2. Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince
    3. Inglorious Basterds

    Bouns: Brüno

    My Bonus – Biggest Flop: Final Destination 4: Death Trip 3D

  2. Georgia Says:

    1. Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince
    2. Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince
    3. Final Destination 4 Star Trek

    Bonus: Optimus Prime! Either that or Harry Potter. But being able to use magic really makes it unfair.

  3. Dario Says:

    1. harry potter
    2. harry potter
    3. X men orgins: Wolverine

    Bonus: Wolverine, as he ni indestructable. Adamantium should be strong enough and sharp enough to penetrate Optimus Prime. Everyone else has no chance compared to those two.

  4. Rob Says:

    Can Captain Kirk use the Enterprise in the fight?

    If so, what would happen if he transported Wolverine into Optimus Prime’s head?

    Of course, he would have to incorporate the back roll flip first.

  5. DaveZatz Says:

    It’s more like The DaVinci Code -1 or zero. Well, the book was anyway. (And I liked it better.)

    Not sure you can bet against Pixar and Land of the Lost will suck (flop).

    1. Terminator [EDIT by Stephen: Dave's comment below updates this to Transformers instead]
    2. Up
    3. Up

  6. Stephen Says:

    Rob — Kirk gets to use a phaser, but not the Enterprise itself. Similarly, Harry Potter can have his wand, but not all of Hogwarts at his disposal.

    I am liking the answers so far, but bear in mind that the protagonist of FD4 is death itself. I think it will be very hard for Wolverine or Kirk or Bruno to beat that. Scratch that, I hereby decree that death itself is the antagonist, not the protagonist. So all players still in play, no bets final, spin the wheel, carry on.

  7. Dario Says:

    hmmm kirk with phaser…what would that do to worlverine set to kill? In the old star trek epeisodes, somehow it always came down to hand to hand combat, and wolvierine would win easily.

    As for harry potter, the wizards get in fights all the time and rarely does one kill another easily. Wolverine will shred the boy if he doesn’t have an instant kill spell at his disposal.

    I’m sticking to my prediction.

  8. Swong Says:

    1. Harry Potter
    2. Harry Potter
    3. X-Men

    Bonus: Wolverine

  9. DaveZatz Says:

    I’m rethinking my answer for #1. Transformers was a horrible movie, yet did VERY VERY well. So the sequel will have the biggest opening weekend this summer. Terminator is too dark and will skew somewhat older I’m guessing.

  10. Lani Says:

    1. Star Trek
    2. Harry Potter
    3. Up

  11. Ken G. Says:

    OK, my answers: 1) Terminator: Salvation (long memorial day weekend); 2) Harry Potter; 3) Up (guess); bonus: Transformers probably destroy all others (Terminators, Wolverine, Spock).

  12. Nathan Says:

    I hate to say this, because I’m rooting for Wolverine and Optimus Prime, but I think Harry’ll take all three. He’s just so popular with so many people. Plus, you factor in the kids and it’s no contest. Maybe – hopefully – I’m wrong.
    As for the winner of a battle royale, I’ll have to go with Wolverine (Although it would be fun to watch Seth Rogan fight Bruno).

    Go Spidey 4 in 2010!!!!

  13. Jim Goldstein Says:

    1. Terminator: Salvation
    2. Harry Potter
    3. Up
    Bonus – Wolverine

  14. Roger Says:

    Since I haven’t really read the questions thoroughly.. I put all of my answers as “Land of the Lost”… just for participation’s sake. ;)

  15. DaveZatz Says:

    A year or so I was wondering where the Land of the Lost and Johnny Qwest films were. After seeing a Land of the Lost preview, I just don’t care anymore – bury it. And keep that stupid guy out of theaters.

  16. Scrappy Says:

    1 – star trek
    2 – harry potter (taking UK into account)
    3 – inglorious basterds

    Bonus-harry potter !

  17. Kevin Fox Says:

    Looks like May is awesome, and then I can sleep for the rest of the Summer, with one excursion to see Harry Potter.

    This comment was originally posted on FriendFeed

  18. Rachel Lea Fox Says:

    I have to think about this one before I respond. I’ll be getting back to you!

    This comment was originally posted on FriendFeed

  19. Stephen Mack Says:

    Kevin, you’re not interested in the new Tarantino flick?

    This comment was originally posted on FriendFeed

  20. Stephen Mack Says:

    Rachel, no problem. Deadline is 4/30, the night before the first one opens.

    This comment was originally posted on FriendFeed

  21. Stephen Mack Says:

    Updated the post with the prize for this contest: Two free movie tickets to the AMC chain (courtesy of my frequent eater waiter.com points). Deadline is 11:59:59 pm PDT on 4/30 (1 second before May starts). Enter today!

    This comment was originally posted on FriendFeed

  22. Stephen Mack Says:

    Updated the post with the prize for this contest: Two free movie tickets to the AMC chain (courtesy of my frequent eater waiter.com points). Deadline is 11:59:59 PDT on 4/30. Enter today!

    This comment was originally posted on FriendFeed

  23. Stephen Mack Says:

    No one wants free movie tickets?

    This comment was originally posted on FriendFeed

  24. Dario Gomez Says:

    People always wait until the last minute. For instance I’m procrastinating work by typing this post.

    This comment was originally posted on FriendFeed

  25. Stephen Mack Says:

    3 days until contest is closed.

    This comment was originally posted on FriendFeed

  26. Georgia Diehl Says:

    How do I change my answer?

    This comment was originally posted on FriendFeed

  27. Stephen Mack Says:

    Just tell me, I’ll edit stuff.

    This comment was originally posted on FriendFeed

  28. Stephen Mack Says:

    2 more days to enter!

    This comment was originally posted on FriendFeed

  29. Stephen Mack Says:

    One more day to enter! Free movie ticket prize! Takes but a few seconds!

    This comment was originally posted on FriendFeed

  30. Georgia Diehl Says:

    Please change my answer to question 3 from FD4 to Star Trek!

    This comment was originally posted on FriendFeed

  31. Stephen Mack Says:

    Georgia, that’s now updated!

    This comment was originally posted on FriendFeed

  32. Stephen Mack Says:

    Today is the last day to enter! You have until midnight Pacific. Enter enter enter!

    This comment was originally posted on FriendFeed

  33. Rachel Lea Fox Says:

    I’m voting 1. Harry potter 2. Star trek 3. Star trek bonus: wolverine

    This comment was originally posted on FriendFeed

  34. Rachel Lea Fox Says:

    so the bonus question has led to some interesting discussion for keV and I. I’m very torn between harry potter and wolverine. James t. Kirk has a chance. But what I really want to know is how you plan to judge this one?

    This comment was originally posted on FriendFeed

  35. Stephen Mack Says:

    Good question — here’s how it works. First, I will determine the correct answer to each of the three questions (which can’t be done until Labor Day). Whoever has the most correct answers is the winner. In the event of a tie, most creative bonus question answer wins.

    This comment was originally posted on FriendFeed

  36. Stephen Mack Says:

    I’m a little bummed more people haven’t entered. Free contest, summer movies, possibly win some free movie tickets, what’s the holdup?

    This comment was originally posted on FriendFeed

  37. Ken Gidley Says:

    OK, my answers: 1) Terminator: Salvation (long memorial day weekend); 2) Harry Potter; 3) Up (guess); bonus: Transformers probably destroy all others (Terminators, Wolverine, Spock).

    This comment was originally posted on FriendFeed

  38. Georgia Diehl Says:

    What if there is a tie? Battle to the death?

    This comment was originally posted on FriendFeed

  39. Rachel Lea Fox Says:

    glad I asked. I need to elaborate on my bonus answer then but it will need to wait till I’m off my iPhone.

    This comment was originally posted on FriendFeed

  40. Rachel Lea Fox Says:

    Okay Stephen, for my bonus answer I am still sticking with Wolverine, because while Harry Potter is Scrappy, Wolverine is scrappier! I had narrowed the list down to four protagonists (though I don’t know all of them from every movie). My list was Wolverine, Harry Potter, James T. Kirk and G.I. Joe. I elminated everyone else because – in the horror flicks the protagonist is usually too close to death way too often and it often just comes down to chance that they win. I eliminated Optimus Prime because his morals would get in the way of him fighting the good guys anyway. And while I considered the old man in UP because he has spunk, he just couldn’t cut it. Once I had my final 4, I chatted with Kevin who pointed out that GIJoe never really wins, he just keeps on going and occasionally learns something to add to his knowledge arsenal, so he was out. Next I had to remove James T. Kirk. This was hard because while can kick some butt in a cage match, he usually needs his crew to help him eliminate the bad guys lackeys before he…

    This comment was originally posted on FriendFeed

  41. Stephen Mack Says:

    Very nicely reasoned, Rachel! Just one more hour to enter… FREE MOVIE TICKET CONTEST! Hop on over to http://www.zeigen.com/blog/

    This comment was originally posted on FriendFeed

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