Contest: Predict the summer box office champ

This summer features a surprisingly large number of well-known franchise films competing for your entertainment dollar, despite the great recession. If I were a major studio, I might hold off on some of these, but I suppose they’re gambling that summer movie escapism is recession-proof.

The upcoming potential blockbuster releases are listed below. For each week of summer, I picked the most buzz-worthy film.

  1. X-Men Origins: Wolverine — May 1
  2. Star Trek (dir J.J. Abrams) — May 8
  3. Angels & Demons (The Da Vinci Code 2) — May 15
  4. Terminator: Salvation — May 22
  5. Up (Pixar) — May 29
  6. Land of the Lost (Will Ferrell) — June 5
  7. The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3 (Denzel Washington) — June 12
  8. Year One (Jack Black, dir Harold Ramis) — June 19
  9. Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen — June 26
  10. Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs — July 3
  11. Brüno (Sacha Baron Cohen) — July 10
  12. Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince — July 17
  13. G-Force (Disney guinea pig flick) — July 24
  14. Funny People (Seth Rogen, dir Judd Apatow) — July 31
  15. G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra — August 7
  16. Final Destination 4: Death Trip 3D — August 14
  17. Inglorious Basterds (dir Quentin Tarantino) — August 21
  18. H2: Halloween 2 (dir Rob Zombie) — August 28

(Certainly I’m leaving off a lot of films that are coming out this summer. And some, such as the new Woody Allen film Whatever Works, June 19, will probably do better than some of the 18 I’ve listed. But to keep things simple, let’s just consider these 18.)

Now, your tasks:

  1. Predict which of the above 18 films will have the biggest box office opening weekend in the U.S. as determined by The Numbers.
  2. Predict which of the above 18 films will have the biggest worldwide box office take as of Labor Day, as determined by The Numbers.
  3. Predict which of the above 18 films will have the highest Rotten Tomatoes score.

Bonus question: In a fight between the protagonists of the above 18 films, who would win?

To enter, just leave a comment here or in FriendFeed.

Update 4/25: Prize is two movie ticket passes to the AMC chain. Deadline to enter is April 30th.

16 Responses to “Contest: Predict the summer box office champ”

  1. Rich Says:

    1. X-Men Origins: Wolverine
    2. Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince
    3. Inglorious Basterds

    Bouns: Brüno

    My Bonus – Biggest Flop: Final Destination 4: Death Trip 3D

  2. Georgia Says:

    1. Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince
    2. Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince
    3. Final Destination 4 Star Trek

    Bonus: Optimus Prime! Either that or Harry Potter. But being able to use magic really makes it unfair.

  3. Dario Says:

    1. harry potter
    2. harry potter
    3. X men orgins: Wolverine

    Bonus: Wolverine, as he ni indestructable. Adamantium should be strong enough and sharp enough to penetrate Optimus Prime. Everyone else has no chance compared to those two.

  4. Rob Says:

    Can Captain Kirk use the Enterprise in the fight?

    If so, what would happen if he transported Wolverine into Optimus Prime’s head?

    Of course, he would have to incorporate the back roll flip first.

  5. DaveZatz Says:

    It’s more like The DaVinci Code -1 or zero. Well, the book was anyway. (And I liked it better.)

    Not sure you can bet against Pixar and Land of the Lost will suck (flop).

    1. Terminator [EDIT by Stephen: Dave’s comment below updates this to Transformers instead]
    2. Up
    3. Up

  6. Stephen Says:

    Rob — Kirk gets to use a phaser, but not the Enterprise itself. Similarly, Harry Potter can have his wand, but not all of Hogwarts at his disposal.

    I am liking the answers so far, but bear in mind that the protagonist of FD4 is death itself. I think it will be very hard for Wolverine or Kirk or Bruno to beat that. Scratch that, I hereby decree that death itself is the antagonist, not the protagonist. So all players still in play, no bets final, spin the wheel, carry on.

  7. Dario Says:

    hmmm kirk with phaser…what would that do to worlverine set to kill? In the old star trek epeisodes, somehow it always came down to hand to hand combat, and wolvierine would win easily.

    As for harry potter, the wizards get in fights all the time and rarely does one kill another easily. Wolverine will shred the boy if he doesn’t have an instant kill spell at his disposal.

    I’m sticking to my prediction.

  8. Swong Says:

    1. Harry Potter
    2. Harry Potter
    3. X-Men

    Bonus: Wolverine

  9. DaveZatz Says:

    I’m rethinking my answer for #1. Transformers was a horrible movie, yet did VERY VERY well. So the sequel will have the biggest opening weekend this summer. Terminator is too dark and will skew somewhat older I’m guessing.

  10. Lani Says:

    1. Star Trek
    2. Harry Potter
    3. Up

  11. Ken G. Says:

    OK, my answers: 1) Terminator: Salvation (long memorial day weekend); 2) Harry Potter; 3) Up (guess); bonus: Transformers probably destroy all others (Terminators, Wolverine, Spock).

  12. Nathan Says:

    I hate to say this, because I’m rooting for Wolverine and Optimus Prime, but I think Harry’ll take all three. He’s just so popular with so many people. Plus, you factor in the kids and it’s no contest. Maybe – hopefully – I’m wrong.
    As for the winner of a battle royale, I’ll have to go with Wolverine (Although it would be fun to watch Seth Rogan fight Bruno).

    Go Spidey 4 in 2010!!!!

  13. Jim Goldstein Says:

    1. Terminator: Salvation
    2. Harry Potter
    3. Up
    Bonus – Wolverine

  14. Roger Says:

    Since I haven’t really read the questions thoroughly.. I put all of my answers as “Land of the Lost”… just for participation’s sake. 😉

  15. DaveZatz Says:

    A year or so I was wondering where the Land of the Lost and Johnny Qwest films were. After seeing a Land of the Lost preview, I just don’t care anymore – bury it. And keep that stupid guy out of theaters.

  16. Scrappy Says:

    1 – star trek
    2 – harry potter (taking UK into account)
    3 – inglorious basterds

    Bonus-harry potter !

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