Swine flu graph update #3: A(H1N1) modest rate increase
I last updated this graph 15 days ago. In that time, the number of worldwide confirmed cases doubled from nearly 29,000 to nearly 60,000, according to the World Health Organization.
These are not the number of fatal cases. The official count of worldwide fatalities has risen from 144 to 263. That’s a fatality rate of 0.4%, or 1 in 250.
Various news reports this week stated that there were 1 million cases in the U.S. (for example, this article on the Discovery Channel’s site). Those reports are based on projections, not confirmed cases, and honestly to me the figure simply does not seem credible. The 1 million number is not backed by the CDC data, which matches the WHO’s report for U.S. cases. I do believe reporters have confused the concept of “number of vaccines needed in the worst case” with “number of people who have been infected.”
However, it does seem apparent that the rate of new cases has increased. Previously we had seen about 4,500 new cases each week, for a period of three weeks in May. That increased to around 6,500 cases a week in early June. We’re now seeing about 15,500 cases per week for the last two weeks.
It’s hard to say if we’ve seen the point where the number of cases is doubling consistently. It took two weeks to get from 15,000 cases to 30,000, then two weeks more to get from 30,000 cases to 60,000. It will be very interesting to see if the number of cases double again to 120,000 in the next two weeks. At that point, I predict news cycles would start to take things very seriously again.
(Click to see full-size chart.)
July 14th, 2009 at 10:25 am
And to think about half of those are in the US.. I’m surprised we haven’t been receiving more frequent updates.. I know the FDA provides a weekly update, does anyone know of anywhere that offers them more frequently?
July 15th, 2009 at 1:57 pm
It is surprising there aren’t more official updates. The WHO’s last official update was 7/6, which is 9 days ago, the longest delay since this started.
I did just receive the e-mail from Homeland Security Advisor John O. Brennan on “Preparing for H1N1 and the upcoming flu season.” But there’s really little useful at http://flu.gov so far that I could find.
July 21st, 2009 at 1:53 pm
WHO confirmed on 7/16 that they won’t issue global updates any more.
That means my fourth graph (here) is the final one.
June 27th, 2009 at 2:40 pm
Sadly, I knew the person up in Sac that passed last Tuesday. A great loss of a person.
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June 28th, 2009 at 11:58 am
Neal, very sorry to hear that.
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