Second Annual “Predict the Summer Box Office Champ” Contest

Last year, I ran a contest to predict which summer movie would perform the best. With summer fast approaching, now it’s contest time again!

[collage image of movie posters for Summer of 2010]

The Prize: A pair of AMC movie tickets.

How To Enter: Leave a comment here or on FriendFeed with your prediction for these four questions.

  1. Which of the below 33 films will have the biggest U.S. box office opening weekend as determined by The Numbers?
  2. Which of the below 33 films will have the biggest worldwide box office take as of Labor Day, as determined by The Numbers? (Note that movies released later in the summer will be at a disadvantage.)
  3. Which of the below 33 films will have the highest Rotten Tomatoes score?
  4. Tiebreaker: How much money will the correct answer to question 1 take in on its opening weekend in the U.S.?

Deadline to Enter: Monday, May 3, midnight Pacific.

The List of Movies

Here’s the list you can pick from, ordered by date of release:

  1. Iron Man 2 (Robert Downey Jr., dir Jon Favreau) — May 7
  2. Babies — May 7
  3. Robin Hood (Russell Crowe, dir Ridley Scott) — May 14
  4. Shrek Forever After (Mike Meyers) — May 21
  5. MacGruber (Will Forte, Val Kilmer) — May 21
  6. Sex and the City 2 (Sarah Jessica Parker) — May 27
  7. Prince of Persia: Sands of Time (Jake Gyllenhaal) — May 28
  8. Killers (Ashton Kutcher, Katherine Heigl) — June 4
  9. Marmaduke (Owen Wilson) — June 4
  10. Splice (Adrien Brody) — June 4
  11. The A-Team (Liam Neeson) — June 11
  12. The Karate Kid (Jackie Chan) — June 11
  13. Toy Story 3 (Tom Hanks, Tim Allen) — June 18
  14. Jonah Hex (Josh Brolin, Megan Fox, John Malkovich) — June 18
  15. Grown Ups (Adam Sandler) — June 25
  16. Knight and Day (Tom Cruise, Cameron Diaz) — June 25
  17. The Twilight Saga: Eclipse (Kristen Stewart) — July 2
  18. The Last Airbender (dir M. Night Shymalan) — July 2
  19. Despicable Me (Steve Carell) — July 9
  20. Predators (Predator sequel: Adrien Brody, Laurence Fishburne) — July 9
  21. The Sorcerer’s Apprentice (Disney: Nicolas Cage) — July 16
  22. Inception (Leonardo DiCaprio, dir Christopher Nolan) — July 16
  23. Salt (Angelina Jolie) — July 23
  24. The Adjustment Bureau (Matt Damon) — July 30
  25. The Other Guys (Will Ferrell, Mark Wahlberg) — August 6
  26. Eat Pray Love (Julia Roberts) — August 13
  27. The Expendables (Sylvester Stallone, Jet Li) — August 13
  28. Takers (Matt Dillon) — August 20
  29. Nanny McPhee Returns (Emma Thompson) — August 20
  30. The Switch (Jennifer Aniston, Jason Bateman) — August 20
  31. Piranha 3-D (Elisabeth Shue, Richard Dreyfuss) — August 27
  32. The American (George Clooney) — September 1
  33. Machete (Danny Trejo, Robert De Niro, dir Robert Rodriguez) — September 3

It’s a much more crowded field this year than last year, packed with the predictable assortment of sequels and remakes. Some curiosities: Two SF films with Adrien Brody within a few weeks of each other? A-Team vs. Karate Kid on the same weekend? Such a crowded field means there are probably going to be a lot more money-losers this year.

Just as before, I’m leaving off a lot of films that are coming out this summer. And some of those not on the list will probably do better than some of the 33 I’ve listed above. But to keep things simple, let’s just consider these 33.

Gory Details: I will pull all data from the appropriate web sites on Labor Day, 2010. Each entrant will score one point for each correct answer to the first three questions, with a maximum of three points possible. Highest point total wins. In the event of a tie for highest point total, I will use the answer to question 4 as a tiebreaker. Closest to correct wins.

Thanks for entering!

15 Responses to “Second Annual “Predict the Summer Box Office Champ” Contest”

  1. Zatz Says:

    Yeah, much more difficult to predict this year. Especially the best reviewed, exacerbated by the fact I haven’t heard of half of these films (doh). I’ll go with the obvious choices, but say I’m looking forward to another Shrek and A-Team looks ridiculous in a very good way. Although the new B.A. doesn’t appear as B.A. as the original.

    1. Iron Man
    2. Toy Story 3
    3. Toy Story 3
    4. $82 million

  2. Stephen Says:

    One point to clarify: I’ll allow people to change their answers all the way up to the deadline.

  3. Dario Says:

    #1 hate to say it but Twilight
    #2 Shrek
    #3 Despicable Me
    #4 140 million

  4. Georgia Says:

    1. Twighlight Saga: Eclipse
    2. Toy Story 3
    3. Toy Story 3
    4. 145 million

  5. Jandy Says:

    Can’t go too far off the beaten path this year…

    1. Twilight Saga: Eclipse
    2. Toy Story 3
    3. Toy Story 3 (though I hope Inception is up there, too; advance screenings of Toy Story 3 have been really positive)
    4. $155 million

  6. Charlotte Says:

    1. Iron Man

    2. Iron Man

    3. Iron Man

    4.140 million

  7. Rachel Fox Says:

    #1: Twilight
    #2: Toy Story 3
    #3: Babies (It’s between Toy Story 3 and Babies, but I’m going with Babies because it’s the third toy story. Not so sure I’m right though)
    #4: $73,000

  8. Rachel Fox Says:

    opps, I made a mistake. I want to change my #4 to $162,000

  9. Lani Says:

    1. Twilight
    2. Iron Man 2
    3. Toy Story 3
    4. $145M

  10. Zatz Says:

    Looks like I waaaaay underestimated opening weekend. Hopefully it won’t come down to a tie breaker. πŸ™‚

  11. Stephen Says:

    I think the contest is still wiiiiiiiiiiiiide open, Dave. πŸ™‚

  12. Zatz Says:

    I’m going to go ahead and call this race now. I declare myself the winner this year, and there will be no tie breaker to worry about (unlike last year where I didn’t answer). πŸ™‚

  13. Stephen Says:

    I think you are very likely right!

  14. Stephen Says:

    Alas, Dave, turns out that Twilight beat Iron Man for opening weekend, so you only have two of three correct. There are two people who got all 3 right! Although it could change. Machete could trump everything by opening for $200 million, earning $1 billion worldwide, and garnering a 100% RT score.

  15. Annita Says:

    It’s wonderful that you are getting ideas from this paragraph as well as from our discussion made at this time.|

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